Just one month in, Tennessee has already collected about $268 million (23%) more tax revenue than lawmakers budgeted for this point in the fiscal year.

Tennessee collected 21% more tax revenue in FY 2021 than lawmakers initially budgeted, giving the state a $2.1 billion unbudgeted surplus.

The state’s topline economic measures have largely recovered from COVID-19, but there are serious complications and lingering symptoms.

There’s potential for policy change at many levels of government, but state law dictates most of the criminal fees and fines in Tennessee.

Tennessee’s criminal justice system collects over $200 million in fees & fines each year, yet they play a small and shrinking role in the state and most county budgets.

Research shows medical debt can affect health outcomes, exacerbate already poor outcomes, and worsen existing health disparities.

The governor amended his FY 2022 budget proposal with $73 million in net new spending and $325 million in off-budget allocations.

The new federal law could bring $20-30 billion into Tennessee, including $6.3 billion in flexible funds for state and local governments.

The plan reflects much higher-than-expected revenues and directs the largest amounts to capital improvements/maintenance, structural balance, and economic development.

Is Tennessee’s new Medicaid waiver a block grant? Get clear, concise answers to 13 frequently asked questions just like that one.

Tennessee collected far more tax revenue than expected over the last year, leaving Gov. Lee and state lawmakers with a lot of money to allocate.

Census data for Tennessee’s 95 counties continue to show large differences in household income, poverty, education level, and health insurance coverage.

An unprecedented and complex set of new incentives and opportunities for state policymakers, as well as new uncertainty for the people enrolled.

Even if not convicted, people charged with crimes in Tennessee often face substantial fees, fines, taxes, and other financial obligations.

The biggest differences occur between neighborhoods that are often just miles apart.

Tennessee saw large improvements in household income and the poverty in 2019, but both metrics still trail the national average.

Differences in post-secondary education rates among white, black, and Hispanic Tennesseans are shrinking, but significant gaps remain.

The Tennesseans least likely to have health insurance in 2019 were men, Hispanics, younger adults, the unemployed, and people with less education & income.

From the flu to salmonella to COVID-19, major disease outbreaks often focus the public eye on public health. But what does that phrase mean, exactly?

Before COVID-19, one in five Tennesseans already had medical debt on a credit report. This pandemic and recession could make it an even bigger problem.

Statistics and data points can provide valuable information about the world around us, but they’re also easily misunderstood and misused.

The most at-risk businesses employ 1 in 4 private sector workers, who earn 40% less than average and are more likely to be minority, young, and have less education.

Despite the onset of a recession, Tennessee collected about $396 million (or 2%) more tax revenue in FY 2020 than originally budgeted for the fiscal year

Tennessee will get over $25 billion in federal aid, including $8 billion to state government. Much of the relief has already occurred or will soon expire.

Facing an expected $1.5 billion revenue shortfall over two years, Gov. Lee and state lawmakers turned to nearly every available tool to balance the budget.

Over the last two decades, Tennesseans have been less likely than other out-of-work Americans to get unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, the value of those benefits has fallen

Four economists gave their best estimates of how the coronavirus pandemic will affect state tax revenue in the current and next fiscal years.

As the coronavirus’ economic toll grows, the Great Recession offers clues for how falling sales tax revenues will affect county budgets.

Tennessee’s local governments often have the most impact on our daily lives, but state policies frequently shape their options, decisions, and priorities.

Unemployment, labor force participation, GDP, income, and poverty are five of the many ways to measure growth and prosperity in Tennessee.

While GDP offers valuable insight into Tennessee’s economy, there are many aspects of economic well-being it does not capture.

Tennessee’s labor force participation rate is consistently lower than the national average, but the gap has narrowed in recent years.

The unemployment rate measures the share of Tennessee’s labor force without a job, but not all working-age adults count as “in the labor force.”

We measure poverty to gain insights into how many people have trouble meeting their basic needs.

Measures of household and personal income gauge the financial support Tennessee residents have from wages and some – but not all – other sources.

Recent data show 46 Tennessee jails had more inmates than beds. Such close quarters make it hard to slow the spread of COVID-19 and could lead to new outbreaks among the public.

The pandemic has serious health and economic effects, yet Tennessee still has to balance its budget. These are the challenges policymakers face and the tools they have right now.

With pandemic here and recession near, lawmakers passed a preliminary FY 2021 budget that trims $854 million from Gov. Lee’s first draft.

We explain why surpluses and deficits occur, the role of revenue projections and rainy day funds, and the trade-offs Tennessee policymakers must weigh when crafting the budget.

For better or worse, robust access to the U.S. health care system is largely predicated on having health insurance.

Tennessee will use the 2020 census to allocate taxpayer resources, redraw legislative districts, and make countless policy decisions over the next decade.

Gov. Lee unveiled a range of priorities with his second budget, most notably in the areas of teacher pay, literacy, mental health, and criminal justice.

Even if Tennessee’s plan has a separate path to approval, it’s likely to undergo significant changes.

Census data for Tennessee’s 95 counties continue to show large differences in household income, poverty, education level, and health insurance coverage.

TennCare’s latest proposal retains the same basic components as the September 2019 draft with some new specifics and assurances

Families, businesses, and our economy all thrive when people enjoy good health, social and financial well-being, and the chance to make meaningful contributions to society.

TennCare enrollment is highest in Tennessee’s most populated county, but more rural counties have the greatest share of the local population enrolled.

Explore 12 ways Tennessee’s governor and state lawmakers could prevent medical debt, help people manage it, and mitigate its effects.

Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data on Tennessee’s economy, with a regional look at 14 population centers across the state.

The plan would give state officials unprecedented control over major aspects of the program and weights a new funding formula in TennCare’s favor.

Counties with high rates of medical debt tend to have more uninsured residents, auto/retail loans and delinquencies, and payday lenders per capita.

Changes to TennCare, education, criminal justice, online sales tax, sports betting, and fiscal notes had significant budget implications.

Medical debt is unique from other types of debt for its connection to health-related circumstances that individuals often cannot predict or control.

Medical debt is surprisingly common in Tennessee across most demographic and socioeconomic groups, and it can have far-reaching effects on prosperity and health.

Data on the hospital, primary care, and substance abuse/mental health care resources available in each of Tennessee’s 95 counties.

Governor Lee’s FY 2020 budget amendment increases state expenditures by $208.7 million relative to the recommendation submitted in March.

Critical details are missing from a proposed Medicaid block grant for Tennessee. Its effect on TennCare’s budget and flexibility from federal rules are unclear.

The governor’s recommended Budget for FY 2020 totals $38.6 billion, an increase of 1.1% over estimates for the current fiscal year.

The cycle of supervision, release, and recidivism is a significant driver of Tennessee’s state prisoner population.

Half of Tennessee’s local jail inmates in 2018 were people awaiting trial, conviction, or acquittal for felony or misdemeanor charges – up from 30% in 1990.

Current and historical incarceration trends for Tennessee’s state prisoner population provide context for discussions about criminal justice reform.

Facts and trends on how Tennessee budgets for incarceration of state prisoners, which is consistently among the largest state revenue expenses.

The economic cost of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) among Tennessee adults was $5.2 billion in direct medical costs and lost productivity in 2017.

Tennessee’s budget may not have enough rainy day reserves to withstand the next recession without tax hikes or spending cuts.

Census data show large differences in household income, poverty, education, and health insurance status between Tennessee’s rural and urban counties.

Our neighborhoods can affect our access to factors that influence health. Use the map to explore how life expectancy varies across Tennessee communities.

No matter who wins the election, these 5 challenges could keep Tennessee’s next governor and General Assembly busy throughout 2019 and beyond.

Our 3 takeaways from 2017 data on the uninsured in Tennessee and for the Chattanooga, Memphis, Knoxville, Kingsport-Bristol, and Nashville-Murfreesboro metro areas.

Tennessee collected about $636 million (or 4%) more than was originally budgeted for the fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2019

Tennessee is a great place to live. But we’re less healthy than the rest of the country, and that hurts our economy. Watch to learn how.

Tennessee collected about $344 million (or 2%) more than was originally budgeted for the fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2018.

Education levels, poor health, and lack of home internet access or personal vehicles could hinder the ability of many to get and keep a job.

We review the numerous steps Gov. Haslam and TN lawmakers took during the 2018 legislative session.

The most up-to-date data in 2018 show recent trends persist — the supply and potency of prescription opioids are falling, but negative outcomes continue to climb.

Our County Health Profiles examine health outcomes and the drivers of population health in all 95 TN counties.

Research shows 4 broad factors other than genetics influence our health.

Expect premiums for many popular plans to fall in all 95 counties next year and competition to increase in the 4 largest metro areas.

Many attributes make Tennessee an attractive place to start, move, or grow a business. Tennesseans’ health is not one of them.

Prosperity and health are closely connected. Here’s how Tennesseans’ income, wealth, education, and other socioeconomic factors influence our health.

When that recession comes, the governor’s options could prove more limited than in years past. Tough decisions lie ahead.

It includes 4 types of health care providers focused on services that help uninsured adults avoid more costly hospitalizations.

TN’s Obamacare premiums have risen sharply in recent years, but one insurer says their rates might not change much in 2019. So what’s going on?

These maps, charts, and table show how 2018 enrollment, subsidies, and premiums in Tennessee’s Obamacare marketplace vary by county.

Enrollment appears to be leveling out and the lowest-premium plans have become increasingly popular — but there’s a dramatic difference in premiums paid by subsidized and unsubsidized enrollees.

The governor’s amendment makes relatively modest changes, including $30.2M for school safety and another $3.7M for the opioid epidemic.

Supporters and opponents of a proposed TennCare work requirement have disagreed about who would be exempt. This post attempts to bring some clarity to that debate.

Tennessee can learn from other states’ experiences with Medicaid expansion.

TennCare expects work requirements to affect about 86,000 enrollees and cost the state $18.7 million per year.

If the proposed TennCare work requirement is to achieve its goals, our research shows there are several key issues policymakers may want to consider.

Five 1-page infographics on issues that affect Tennesseans in 2018.

Find out where the money comes from, where it goes, and what changed from the current budget.

Some Tennesseans are more likely to have health insurance than others. Here’s how uninsured rates in Tennessee counties vary after accounting for employment status and income.

On January 11, 2018, the federal government released new guidance for states considering a Medicaid work requirement. One day later, Kentucky became the first state to get federal approval.

The opioid epidemic, recession readiness, and potential reforms and funding pressures from Congress that could affect the state budget.

Health, prosperity, public policy…all of these things are connected.

To improve our state’s health outcomes, policymakers should understand the complex set of factors that influence them.

The budget represents our policymakers’ goals, the public goods and services intended to help meet those goals, and detailed plans to finance them.

A resource for any Tennessean who hopes to make or influence public policy in our state.

Health and education are mutually influential. Both health and education policy may benefit from discussions that consider their close and complex connections.

Defining the goals and details of a TennCare work requirement, seeking better data, investments in support services, and avoiding unintended consequences.

Those weighing the trade-offs of adding a work requirement to TennCare may look for insights in Tennesee’s experience with the welfare-to-work policies of Families First.

Tennessee’s excess burden of 3 chronic diseases cost nearly $5.3 billion in 2015 in direct medical care, lost productivity, and premature death.

Budget decisions by Tennessee’s governor and legislature affect every Tennessean. Join us on Nov. 7 to find out how those decisions get made!

Don’t have time to read our 3-part series on Tennessee’s opioid crisis? We wrote up the Cliffs Notes in a new op-ed for The Tennessean.

The U.S. Census Bureau released new data on health insurance coverage across the country in 2016. Here are our top 3 takeaways for Tennessee.

Congress & President Trump have 4 options to address CSR payments. Their choice will have a significant effect on Tennessee’s Obamacare marketplace.

The Graham-Cassidy bill gives Tennessee 3 things: more money for health coverage, more control over health insurance, and 18 months to sort out the details.

Medicaid work requirements are most likely to affect non-elderly adults without disabilities. Let’s look at what that could mean in Tennessee.

TennCare long-term services and supports help elderly or disabled low-income Tennesseans with daily tasks like eating, bathing, and taking medication.

Can anyone with income below a certain threshold enroll in Medicaid? That’s true in some states, but Medicaid eligibility in Tennessee is more complicated.

Tennessee’s capacity for addiction treatment is lower than the demand and out of sync with the geography of the opioid epidemic.

Tennessee has responded to the opioid epidemic by limiting the supply of prescriptions. Reducing demand means addressing addiction.

The opioid epidemic has hit Tennessee especially hard. Tennessee has made progress in reducing opioid prescriptions, but overdose deaths continue to rise.

Employer-sponsored health insurance deductibles in Tennessee have become far more common and far more expensive since 2002.

If Congress’ health care bill stalls, Tennessee has several options options that might help reduce premium growth and stabilize the individual market.

The U.S. House and Senate’s health care bills both loosen rules for essential health benefits (EHB), but in different ways and with different trade-offs.

The rate of Tennesseans dying from cardiovascular disease has fallen but remains above the national average. It’s even higher for African-Americans.

The science of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) indicates that early childhood and adolescence are critical times for human brain development.

TennCare per enrollee spending has usually grown faster than general inflation, closer to medical inflation & slower than medical inflation +1% since 2006.

The AHCA’s key trade-offs could have a significant impact on 1.5 million rural Tennesseans and 150,000 Tennesseans with disabilities covered by TennCare.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, is one of the primary government programs focused on nutrition.

TennCare is the name for Medicaid in Tennessee. TennCare is the state budget’s largest department, but the federal government pays two-thirds of the cost.

Federal funding in Tennessee accounts for nearly 40% of the state budget. Most of that money comes with some big restrictions on how we can spend it.

Exploring and explaining the surprising connection between food insecurity and obesity in Tennessee and the U.S. as a whole.

There’s a complicated relationship between public health and public policy, which makes the challenging task of developing effective policy even harder.

The American Health Care Act (AHCA) could affect coverage for 1 in 3 Tennesseans and give state lawmakers more control over health insurance.

A wide range of public policy issues — even some not usually associated with health — can influence the health and well-being of Tennesseans.

Governor Haslam’s 2017 Tennessee budget amendment makes a number of changes to the original budget recommendation he released in January.

A review of research on the connection between affordable, quality housing and health, with a focus on housing and health in Tennessee.

Lawmakers considering gas tax revenue and car sales taxes to fund highway projects in Tennessee should weigh the trade-offs of both options.

The history of AccessTN, the high-risk pool Tennessee created in 2006 in an effort to provide better access to health insurance for high-risk individuals.

Tennessee may be eligible for federal funding of reinsurance and high-risk pools, which could improve access to health insurance and alleviate rising costs.

An intro to key concepts that influence access and affordability in health insurance markets, such as risk pools, predictability, incentives, and stability.

The Senate compromise on Gov. Haslam’s IMPROVE Act makes the original bill’s Highway Fund tax increases smaller and its General Fund tax reductions larger.

Tennessee’s individual health insurance market could look a lot different if the American Health Care Act (AHCA) replaces the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

Background on TennCare reform efforts and the key design choices Tennessee policymakers may have to address if Congress changes the structure of Medicaid.

Under the American Health Care Act (AHCA), federal TennCare funding could be $460 million more to $2.6 billion less than current law over the next decade.

The American Health Care Act (AHCA) being considered by Congress would have a significant impact on federal funding for TennCare.

Good data and research are critical to any public policy discussion. In an op-ed for The Tennessean, we put current transportation issues in context.

A detailed summary and analysis of Governor Bill Haslam’s 2017 Tennessee budget proposal with charts, graphs and a 1-page infographic.

Transportation impacts public health in many ways. Highways, roads, bridges, bikeways, sidewalks, and public transit all have benefits and trade-offs.

What’s the difference between Medicaid and Medicare? What’s TennCare? Those are just three of important terms to know as lawmakers consider reforms.

A 5-part series to explain recent Medicaid reform proposals, including block grants, and how they could impact Tennessee and TennCare.

Charts & graphs about the Tennessee Highway Fund – where the money comes from, how funding and Tennessee’s gas tax have changed over time, and other trends.

The federal budget reconciliation process, how it could be used to change the Affordable Care Act, and how that might impact Tennessee.

The Tennessee State Budget Primer explains what the budget does, how it’s created, where the money comes from, and where it goes.