Each month, the Tennessee Department of Finance & Administration (F&A) reports how much tax revenue the state collected for the previous month. These reports help policymakers and the public understand how actual revenue collections compare to estimates from the start of the fiscal year. The Sycamore Institute’s Tennessee Tax Revenue Tracker, updated monthly, provides a quick visual snapshot of each report.

Tennessee’s March 2023 Revenue Collections 

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.  

• Actual collections for March 2023 were about 12% higher than budgeted.  

• As of March 31, 2023, Tennessee had collected about 69% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year. 

• Collections through March were about $1.5 billion higher (or 12%) than what was budgeted for the time period. The governor’s FY 2024 budget proposes revising the state’s official FY 2023 revenue projection and allocating about $2.7 billion in expected surplus. 

For additional details, read F&A’s official March 2023 report on revenue collections. 

Why Revenue Forecasts Are So Important

Forecasting how much tax revenue Tennessee will collect in a given year or month is a difficult but important part of maintaining a balanced budget, which the state constitution requires. F&A’s revenue forecasts have a major influence on decisions about spending. Overestimating revenues could force state policymakers to cut spending mid-year.

On the other hand, underestimating revenues creates unplanned surpluses which can be spent the following year or saved in the rainy day fund. The trade-off of a surplus is that policymakers may have preferred to either spend the money or reduce taxes in the current year.

See our Tennessee State Budget Primer for more on the implications of state revenue estimates and how accurate these estimates have been in recent years. To learn how F&A creates its revenue forecasts, read the department’s methodology here.

Tennessee’s February 2023 Revenue Collections 

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.   

• Actual collections for February 2023 were about 11% higher than budgeted. 

• As of February 28, 2023, Tennessee had collected about 61% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year. 

• Collections through February were about $1.3 billion higher (or 12%) than what was budgeted for the time period. The governor’s FY 2024 budget proposes revising the state’s official FY 2023 revenue projection and allocating about $2.7 billion in expected surplus. 

Tennessee’s January 2023 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.  

• Actual collections for January 2023 were about 12% higher than budgeted.  

• As of January 31, 2022, Tennessee had collected about 54% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year. 

• Collections through January were about $1.2 billion higher (or 12%) than what was budgeted for the time period. 

For additional details, read F&A’s official January 2023 report on revenue collections. 

Tennessee’s December 2022 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for December 2022 were about 12% higher than budgeted.  

• As of December 31, 2022, Tennessee had collected about 44% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year. 

• Collections through December were about $960 million higher (or 12%) than what was budgeted for the time period. 

For additional details, read F&A’s official December 2022 report on revenue collections. 

Tennessee’s November 2022 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for November 2022 were about 12% higher than budgeted.
• As of November 30, 2022, Tennessee had collected about 34% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through November were about $743 million higher (or 13%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official November 2022 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s October 2022 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for October 2022 were about 13% higher than budgeted.
• As of October 31, 2022, Tennessee had collected about 26% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through October were about $586 million higher (or 13%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official October 2022 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s September 2022 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for September 2022 were about 15% higher than budgeted.
• As of September 30, 2022, Tennessee had collected about 13% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through September were about $408 million higher (or 13%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official September 2022 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s August 2022 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2023 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for August 2022 were about 9% higher than budgeted.
• As of August 31, 2022, Tennessee had collected about 8% of the $19.5 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through August were about $131 million higher (or 9%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official August 2022 report on revenue collections.

* This post was originally published on November 9, 2022 and will be updated for each month of FY 2023.