Each month, the Tennessee Department of Finance & Administration (F&A) reports how much tax revenue the state collected for the previous month. These reports help policymakers and the public understand how actual revenue collections compare to estimates from the start of the fiscal year. The Sycamore Institute’s Tennessee Tax Revenue Tracker, updated monthly, provides a quick visual snapshot of each report.

Tennessee’s FY 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections for FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for the last month of the fiscal year were about 56% higher than budgeted – largely due to a delay in several tax filing deadlines from April to July.
• In total, collections were about $369 million higher (or 2%) than what was budgeted at the beginning of the fiscal year.
• State policymakers expected collections to take a significant hit due to COVID-19 and passed a plan in June to make up those projected shortfalls in FYs 2020 and 2021. Final collections for FY 2020, however, turned out to be nearly half a billion ($488 million) higher than lawmakers expected in June.
• The outlook for FY 2021 remains uncertain. Several federal programs helped boost consumer spending and state revenue collections, but some of those programs have expired or their effects have dissipated. At the same time, temporary job losses may become increasingly permanent the longer the pandemic goes on – which would have a negative effect on state revenues.

For additional details, read F&A’s official July 2020 report on revenue collections.

Why Revenue Forecasts Are So Important

Forecasting how much tax revenue Tennessee will collect in a given year or month is a difficult but important part of maintaining a balanced budget, which the state constitution requires. F&A’s revenue forecasts have a major influence on decisions about spending. Overestimating revenues could force state policymakers to cut spending mid-year.

On the other hand, underestimating revenues creates unplanned surpluses which can be spent the following year or saved in the rainy day fund. The trade-off of a surplus is that policymakers may have preferred to either spend the money or reduce taxes in the current year.

See our Tennessee State Budget Primer for more on the implications of state revenue estimates and how accurate these estimates have been in recent years. To learn how F&A creates its revenue forecasts, read the department’s methodology here.

Tennessee’s June 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for June 2020 (which represents economic activity in May) were about 1% lower than budgeted.
• As of June 30, 2020, Tennessee had collected about 90% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through June were about $298 million lower (or 2%) than what was budgeted for the time period.
• Earlier in the year, the state extended several tax filing deadlines from April 15 to July 15 – including for the franchise and excise taxes, a significant source of the state’s revenues. As a result, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tennessee’s revenues for FY 2020 will not become clear until August.
• Read our summary of the final FY 2020 and FY 2021 budgets to learn how policymakers plan to make up for any shortfalls while meeting the constitutional balanced budget requirement.

For additional details, read F&A’s official June 2020 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s May 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for May 2020 (which represents economic activity in April) were about 17% lower than budgeted.
• As of May 31, 2020, Tennessee had collected about 80% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through May were about $285 million lower (or 2%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official May 2020 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s April 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for April 2020 (which represents economic activity in March) were about 35% lower than budgeted.
• Franchise and excise tax collections were particularly low compared to estimates, which largely reflects the state’s extended filing deadline from April 15 to July 15.
• As of April 30, 2020, Tennessee had collected about 74% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through April were about $88 million lower (or 1%) than what was budgeted for the time period.
• Future reports will provide a clearer picture of the full revenue effects of COVID-19.

For additional details, read F&A’s official April 2020 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s March 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for March 2020 (which represents economic activity in February) were about 5% higher than budgeted.
• As of March 31, 2020, Tennessee had collected about 66% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through March were about $606 million higher (or 6%) than what was budgeted for the time period.
• COVID-19’s revenue effects will likely first appear in the April and May collections reports, which reflect economic activity in March and April, respectively. Since the state extended the filing deadline for franchise and excise taxes from April 15 to July 15, those collections may be particularly low in the coming months.

For additional details, read F&A’s official March 2020 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s February 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for February 2020 were about 7% higher than budgeted.
• As of February 29, 2020, Tennessee had collected about 58% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through February were about $544 million higher (or 6%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official February 2020 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s January 2020 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for January 2020 were about 9% higher than budgeted.
• As of January 31, 2020, Tennessee had collected about 51% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through January were about $481 million higher (or 6%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official January 2020 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s December 2019 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for December 2019 were about 4% higher than budgeted.
• As of December 31, 2019, Tennessee had collected about 41% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through December were about $351 million higher (or 6%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official December 2019 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s November 2019 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for November 2019 were about 7% higher than budgeted.
• As of November 30, 2019, Tennessee had collected about 32% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through November were about $296 million higher (or 6%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official November 2019 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s October 2019 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for October 2019 were about 5% higher than budgeted.
• As of October 31, 2019, Tennessee had collected about 25% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through October were about $217 million higher (or 5%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official October 2019 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s September 2019 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for September 2019 were about 10% higher than budgeted.
• As of September 30, 2019, Tennessee had collected about 17% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through September were about $168 million higher (or 7%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official September 2019 report on revenue collections.

Tennessee’s August 2019 Revenue Collections

The image below shows Tennessee’s revenue collections so far in FY 2020 relative to the estimates for which the state “budgeted” at the start of the fiscal year.

• Actual collections for August 2019 were about 3% higher than budgeted.
• As of August 31, 2019, Tennessee had collected about 7% of the $15.4 billion in total budgeted revenue for the current fiscal year.
• Collections through August were about $29 million higher (or 3%) than what was budgeted for the time period.

For additional details, read F&A’s official August 2019 report on revenue collections.

* This post was originally published on September 18, 2019 and will be updated for each month of FY 2020.